# Matteo — I'm not convinced the AI bubble exists

> An essay that checks the 'AI bubble' claim against spending, revenue and valuation numbers.

- Org: Matteo
- Date: 2026-11-08
- Category: article
- Source: https://matteoraso.github.io/im-not-convinced-the-ai-bubble-exists.html
- Canonical page: https://ai-tldr.dev/releases/matteoraso-not-convinced-ai-bubble/

## In short

Matteo argues the AI bubble is not a settled fact: most of the roughly $5 trillion in AI spending is one-time data-center building, and Anthropic's S-1 shows $2.08 of revenue per $1 of compute. He still lists real risks.

## What it is

Matteo's essay 'I'm not convinced the AI bubble exists' pushes back on the common view that AI spending must end in a crash. He counts at least $3 trillion committed and about $1.9 trillion already spent, around $5 trillion in total.

## How it works

The core argument is that data-center spending is a one-off purchase, not a running cost. Paying off $5 trillion over 20 years is about $250 billion a year, which he compares with Alphabet's 2019 revenue of about $162 billion. He adds that Anthropic's S-1 reports $2.08 of revenue for every $1 of compute, and that Alphabet, Meta and Nvidia trade at price-to-earnings ratios in their 20s.

## Why it matters

The piece drew 563 points and more than 950 comments on Hacker News as Anthropic prepares its IPO, a moment when the bubble question matters for anyone betting on AI vendors. Matteo also names the risks he takes seriously: heavy debt, backlash against data centers, regulation and OpenAI's uncertain finances.

## Who it's for

developers and investors weighing the AI boom

## Links

- [Essay](https://matteoraso.github.io/im-not-convinced-the-ai-bubble-exists.html)
- [HN Discussion](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50418975)