Dan Luu · 2026-09-01 · notable
Dan Luu — checking Ed Zitron's AI predictions against the numbers
Dan Luu goes back through predictions by AI critic Ed Zitron and checks them against reported results. On Zitron's 2024 claim that Meta, Google, and Microsoft were dying, Luu lays out revenue and profit that kept climbing.
Dan Luu scores the most-cited AI skeptic's public predictions against what the companies went on to report.
What is it?
Dan Luu's essay works through predictions made by Ed Zitron, whom Luu calls the most widely cited AI skeptic he has seen, and compares each one with what happened next. Luu opens by disclosing his own position: no direct stake in AI companies beyond index funds, and a view he describes as "extremely boring".
How does it work?
One prediction gets taken apart in detail before the full list. In a November 2024 talk Zitron called Meta "a dying product, and it's kind of a dying company" and said Google and Microsoft no longer know how to grow. Luu answers with reported figures: Meta went from $135B revenue in 2023 to $201B in 2025, Alphabet from $307B to $403B, and Microsoft from $228B to $305B, with profit rising alongside.
Why does it matter?
The argument Luu makes is about reasoning, not just the scorecard. He says Zitron builds large conclusions on small, shaky inputs — third-party traffic estimates instead of Meta's own numbers, or one Google executive as the cause of search decline — and that the chain of reasoning fails even where the mood is right. Anyone quoting AI-bubble arguments now has a worked example to check them against.
Who is it for?
readers following the AI bubble debate