Ed Zitron · 2026-06-08 · major
Ed Zitron: 'AI Is Slowing Down' — Where's Your Ed At Long-Read Pegs OpenAI Compute Commitments at $770B and Anthropic's at $330B Against ~$60B Combined 2026 Revenue, Calling for ~496% Revenue CAGR Through 2029 to Service the Buildout
Better Offline host Ed Zitron's June 8 long-read argues OpenAI and Anthropic's combined $1.1T in compute commitments require roughly 496% revenue growth by 2029, against a base where two unprofitable labs make up ~89% of AI startup revenue.
Zitron's accounting argues OpenAI and Anthropic need ~496% revenue growth by 2029 to service ~$1.1T in compute commitments.
Key specs
| Hn points | 616 |
|---|---|
| Hn comments | 687 |
| Openai compute commit | $770B |
| Anthropic compute commit | $330B |
| Combined revenue2026 | $60B |
| Revenue growth required | 496% by 2029 |
| Openai anthropic share of aistartup revenue | 89% |
| Enterprise aicost visibility comprehensive | 26% |
| Read time minutes | 24 |
What is it?
A 24-minute essay on Where's Your Ed At from longtime AI bubble skeptic Ed Zitron, who hosts iHeart's Better Offline podcast. Zitron walks through SEC filings, infrastructure financing, and enterprise cost surveys to argue that AI spending is decelerating relative to the math the buildout requires. Hit the HN front page with 616 points and 687 comments in 22 hours.
How does it work?
The accounting: OpenAI carries ~$770B in announced compute commitments, Anthropic ~$330B; the two project ~$60B in combined 2026 revenue and would need to grow ~496% by 2029 to break even on those commitments. Zitron notes Oracle alone is spending $340–700B on 7.1GW of data centers for OpenAI in Michigan, New Mexico, Wisconsin, and Texas, and that 190GW of announced AI data centers at $80–100B/GW imply $9.5–15T in total buildout cost. He pulls a Flexera survey showing only 26% of enterprise buyers have comprehensive AI cost visibility and 22% have none until billing arrives.
Why does it matter?
Reframes 'AI is slowing' from a model-progress debate to a unit-economics one: even if capability keeps improving, the cash-burn math could force a contraction before demand catches up. Zitron's claim that OpenAI and Anthropic together account for ~89% of AI startup revenue is the sharpest disagreement point in the HN thread — bulls argue the rest of the ecosystem just hasn't shown up in the numbers yet.