David Rosenthal · 2026-06-23 · notable
David Rosenthal: 'AI's Affordability Crisis' — the 70x subsidy that can't hold
David Rosenthal pulls together SemiAnalysis and Ed Zitron numbers to argue AI tokens are sold at a fraction of cost — Anthropic up to 40x, OpenAI up to 70x — and that real billing would turn a $200 ChatGPT plan into a $14,000 bill.
David Rosenthal argues AI providers sell tokens at up to 70x below cost — a gap he says can't close without massive job losses.
What is it?
AI's Affordability Crisis is a June 23 blog post by David Rosenthal that gathers SemiAnalysis and Ed Zitron numbers to argue the AI economy runs on heavy token-price subsidies. Rosenthal walks through what users pay versus what each query actually costs the provider.
How does it work?
The post cites SemiAnalysis research showing enterprise tokens subsidized up to 40x at Anthropic and up to 70x at OpenAI, then pairs that with OpenAI's 2025 financials — $13.07B revenue against $34B in costs and $20.92B in losses. Rosenthal frames the gap as structural rather than a short-term land grab.
Why does it matter?
Once true token billing arrives, Rosenthal estimates a $200 ChatGPT plan can run up $14,000 in compute and a $200 Claude plan up to $8,000. He calculates AI firms would need to replace roughly 32.5 million US jobs to service their projected $3T debt — a scale he calls implausible.
Who is it for?
AI buyers, infra planners, anyone modeling AI cost curves